Groaan!! That's how my friend,NK reacts whenever you move him from his blissful existence (yes included one headed monsters and more often than not him taking over the world with the help of machines) , but I have to do it, because for me deciding where and what to eat is the most difficult thing to do in life (or whatever I am in currently). Differential equations, stochastic calculus, philosophy, sociology I am fine with, but where to it is a question which overloads my senses... you can actually hear the circuitry cracking up...
But courtesy David A Shiang, I am forced to believe that somebody is actually interested in what I eat and that is the reason my decision takes so long. NK has achieved Nirvana already (he was born that way according to me) and agrees that I am doomed in life. The problem is this: If you look at the outcomes of decision, it is what it is, i.e. if you consider the problem in terms of the throwing dice it is pretty simple: It has been drilled into my head that unloaded dice has a 1/2 probability of getting a heads, that apparently is the wrong logic, because only the long run probability of getting a heads becomes 1/2 ( that is if you toss the coin a lot of times), but the when the coin is tossed there is but one outcome. It could not have been anything else. There goes free will into a toss.
If you were to think of future, it is but the past in some memory, so there is no other way it could have happened. So the future is deterministic, yes, yes I can totally feel you thinking its not possible. Actually, if you go down the deterministic path there is no logic, because whatever you say there is but no other way to say it.
What is the solution to this? The answer itself is a game of loaded dice.
Monday, April 14, 2008
Monday, April 07, 2008
Why building a skill will be useful for you right now
Lately, i have begun to realize that a lot of intelligent and smart people I have known over time have ceased to use their creative abilities. Surprisingly the trend seems to start a short while out of college. Most organizations, the large ones especially seem to have the ability to mask less than optimal usage of resources. Firstly most of work on some sort of documentation. Want to understand a sector? Read a report prepare model and explain using a presentation. Since a lot of firms have tried to standardize this process what we have is the systematic dumbing down of mental resources.
What has all this got to do with skill? My basic proposition is this: as we move more extensively towards information application as the primary mode of employment, the people who can physically create something will automatically end up getting a premium over others.
What has all this got to do with skill? My basic proposition is this: as we move more extensively towards information application as the primary mode of employment, the people who can physically create something will automatically end up getting a premium over others.
End of learning?
Is collective intelligence better than individual intelligence. There is no question, this is the age of the group. You learn in a group in college, work in a group in b-school, work in a team in office, share and maintain contact through collective platforms what the hell, you even party in a group. Group success or failure is determined by the need to find a common cause.
Traditional fields such as science economics or even design for that matter are under the onslaught of the need to work under groups. The basic premise being that group dynamics would ensure that the output dynamics are controlled. Fields such as science have always been collaborative, all the great scientists of a time speak to each other and share problems and solutions.
What if groups are only mode of thinking left? Outrageous not exactly-when was the last time you referred to a textbook or journal? What we regularly do is to rely (veracity is not the point of discussion ) on information that is widely available. Lot of people are putting the time for you to access that information, but the question is can the world wide web (meaning users) can ever use their collective intelligence to work on problems at the forefront- aids, sustainable development, understanding the universe et all?
Or will these problems always remain the purview of the lone warriors?
Traditional fields such as science economics or even design for that matter are under the onslaught of the need to work under groups. The basic premise being that group dynamics would ensure that the output dynamics are controlled. Fields such as science have always been collaborative, all the great scientists of a time speak to each other and share problems and solutions.
What if groups are only mode of thinking left? Outrageous not exactly-when was the last time you referred to a textbook or journal? What we regularly do is to rely (veracity is not the point of discussion ) on information that is widely available. Lot of people are putting the time for you to access that information, but the question is can the world wide web (meaning users) can ever use their collective intelligence to work on problems at the forefront- aids, sustainable development, understanding the universe et all?
Or will these problems always remain the purview of the lone warriors?
Why didn't I ask some of those questions?
Warning: Sweeping generalizations follow. Please avoid if sensitive.
I just finished reading 'The Elegant Universe' by Brian Green and its one of the best books that I have read in a long time.
Apart from the theory itself which I shall save to another post what really caught my attention was the lack of references to Indian or for that matter any Asian names. Is it that we do not really work on such cutting edge research or we don't bother ourself with such work when there are matters of feeding oneself pending or quite simply among other things we just lack the basic faculty of asking the right questions?
There are lot of Indians in the US, both as citizens and students, this somehow seems to indicate to me that our innate ability to learn is more hard wired towards rote than anything else. The answer for this could simply be our traditional method of learning or this could be ingrained as a function of economic mobility.
By economic mobility I mean that innovation/thought always tends to gravitate towards the basic instincts of survival first and then to higher pursuits later. Different parts of India are perennially under a race, some a race for social mobility and others a simple race of survival, in such a scenario can cutting edge innovation occur? Sure it does, but it would be more likely to solve problems of everyday life rather than advanced theoretical physics. No offense to either.
My own personal sense of this is a firm no, the learning style it always occurred to me never gave me too many options of asking 'Why?'. It never prevented me ( thats why there are so greats in the country, its despite their training not because of it) from asking questions but does not really encourage it.
We are good, but we may not be good everywhere.
Thursday, April 03, 2008
Reliance - going fab!!!
Reliance, the petrochemical behemoth shall invest $7.55 Bn in building semiconductor fabrication (Fab) units (and from the news report I get an idea of polysilicon too).
Fab's worldwide are losing money and in India we dont exactly have the expertise (Taiwan has been doing it for almost an eternity now) . National Semi has shown what can go wrong of TSMC has always lead the pack with what can go right.
The rationale:
1) Its capital intensive, time consuming project: Reliance domain
2) Worldwide polysilicon shortage: Build spectacular capacities while there are none, again typical Reliance
3) If solar energy really becomes cheap, it could provide thousands a source of cheap electricity in India. It falls right in Dhirubhai territory, make the 'aam aadmi' dream
What could go wrong?
1) Global overcapacity
2) Silicon shortage
3) Shift in technology away from Silicon (the real challenge for both solar/semi's)
4) Environment!!
I am still skeptical about the news per se, but if its right somebody please get me a job in Reliance. I want to build this!
Fab's worldwide are losing money and in India we dont exactly have the expertise (Taiwan has been doing it for almost an eternity now) . National Semi has shown what can go wrong of TSMC has always lead the pack with what can go right.
The rationale:
1) Its capital intensive, time consuming project: Reliance domain
2) Worldwide polysilicon shortage: Build spectacular capacities while there are none, again typical Reliance
3) If solar energy really becomes cheap, it could provide thousands a source of cheap electricity in India. It falls right in Dhirubhai territory, make the 'aam aadmi' dream
What could go wrong?
1) Global overcapacity
2) Silicon shortage
3) Shift in technology away from Silicon (the real challenge for both solar/semi's)
4) Environment!!
I am still skeptical about the news per se, but if its right somebody please get me a job in Reliance. I want to build this!
Attacting party workers, Desi Style!!
Any particular choices? Man would the population be impressed or what?
Monday, March 24, 2008
Rajiv Gandhi International Airport, Shamshabad
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Awesome @ first thought, but man would it be costly. (Cant we think of better names ?)
I was extremely apprehensive about reaching the airport on time but the promised half an hour shuttle service was there on time all right ( I waited to 2 buses to pass by), the call center knew exactly the kind of questions that people would ask and responded accordingly.
The logistics: Distance to any part of the city is 20 KM + and would easily take about 1 – 1.5 hours. Bad beginning I would say, for all the planning no one would have imagined that Hyderabad would get rainfall in March. Most people would want to avoid any sort of delay and hence the travel time could range any time from 2.5-3 hrs.
( My mom packed me out about 3.5 hrs before the journey – low cost aircraft airlines dump passengers right? , that gave me ample time to explore the airport. I began writing this at 9:15 PM (my flight was at 9:40), since the flight took off at 12:15 (yeah Deccan), I had more than ample time. Anyway, lets leave my travails apart. )
The architecture: It is beautiful to say the least. Very easily accessible, there was reasonable traffic today (being the end of vacation period) and despite being the first day the staff were able to manage quite well. Need to look up the architect, but the feeling of grandeur and space are clearly there. The demarcation between domestic & international is not quite clear & the information desk is one level lower than where most people would descend. The car park is huge (I did not check the parking charges, but going by rest of the costs it would be pretty steep too). The air-conditioning was excellent and the place was broadly clean (yes, first day impression).
That’s for the good part, now the ugly bit.
Costs:
1) At a prepaid taxi fare of 600-800 bucks
2) Total commute in absence of proper roads (the Secunderabad-Habsiguda-Uppal X Road – Nagole – Chandrayangutta – Airport) falls apart after Chandrayangutta even on a Sunday. I shudder how much time this route would consume on a working day. Anyway assuming a total commute time of 5 hrs from anywhere worthwhile, the new airport would ensure flying-in and flying-out from the city the same day would rarely make sense anymore. (The reason for all the property coming up around the airport). The roads will get built, should we have waited? I guess not, its impossible to drive change if its not sudden.
3) The services at the airport: No ‘free’ water that I could find. This is what is humongous, the cheapest meal that you can have is for Rs 200 (cup of rice/1 roti +dal ). Coffee inside is 100 bucks + , most of the junta were busy gorging on ice creams because that was the cheapest thing available (yes Gelato @ 50 bucks was the cheapest thing in sight). Cookies at 100 bucks each, onion rings at 120 bucks, almost as if the developers feel that along with international quality we need international prices too!!!
4) With the time/transportation cost et all the other angle to this is the user development fees that is supposed to be charged to the consumer. The idea being that since the consumer is benefiting he must pay for it. As usual, take the last penny from the people who are willing to pay syndrome. In the short run, theoretically the costs should put of some LCC passengers, but that pie is pretty large so there should not be a significant impact
5) What is more important to see is the issue of the ground handling being done (or contracted out) by the developer. Lot of thought goes into the bidding process and each revenue stream would be a reason (and possibly up-front payments from contractors could be one of them) for the IRR’s to accrue to the developers. A lot of players would be watching this with interest, the govt. possibly needs to build in some flexibility in its contracts.
Overall, a step forward. But unless the surrounding issues are quickly solved, we could once again have a case of “well begun is half done”. One thing going for this project is that its extremely difficult to migrate back to the old airport and hence the stakeholders have to hammer out each of the issues. There are no short cuts.
PS: Finally, Whats going to happen to the prime Begumpet Airport Land? And please pardon me for the poor quality of images :)
I was extremely apprehensive about reaching the airport on time but the promised half an hour shuttle service was there on time all right ( I waited to 2 buses to pass by), the call center knew exactly the kind of questions that people would ask and responded accordingly.
The logistics: Distance to any part of the city is 20 KM + and would easily take about 1 – 1.5 hours. Bad beginning I would say, for all the planning no one would have imagined that Hyderabad would get rainfall in March. Most people would want to avoid any sort of delay and hence the travel time could range any time from 2.5-3 hrs.
( My mom packed me out about 3.5 hrs before the journey – low cost aircraft airlines dump passengers right? , that gave me ample time to explore the airport. I began writing this at 9:15 PM (my flight was at 9:40), since the flight took off at 12:15 (yeah Deccan), I had more than ample time. Anyway, lets leave my travails apart. )
The architecture: It is beautiful to say the least. Very easily accessible, there was reasonable traffic today (being the end of vacation period) and despite being the first day the staff were able to manage quite well. Need to look up the architect, but the feeling of grandeur and space are clearly there. The demarcation between domestic & international is not quite clear & the information desk is one level lower than where most people would descend. The car park is huge (I did not check the parking charges, but going by rest of the costs it would be pretty steep too). The air-conditioning was excellent and the place was broadly clean (yes, first day impression).
That’s for the good part, now the ugly bit.
Costs:
1) At a prepaid taxi fare of 600-800 bucks
2) Total commute in absence of proper roads (the Secunderabad-Habsiguda-Uppal X Road – Nagole – Chandrayangutta – Airport) falls apart after Chandrayangutta even on a Sunday. I shudder how much time this route would consume on a working day. Anyway assuming a total commute time of 5 hrs from anywhere worthwhile, the new airport would ensure flying-in and flying-out from the city the same day would rarely make sense anymore. (The reason for all the property coming up around the airport). The roads will get built, should we have waited? I guess not, its impossible to drive change if its not sudden.
3) The services at the airport: No ‘free’ water that I could find. This is what is humongous, the cheapest meal that you can have is for Rs 200 (cup of rice/1 roti +dal ). Coffee inside is 100 bucks + , most of the junta were busy gorging on ice creams because that was the cheapest thing available (yes Gelato @ 50 bucks was the cheapest thing in sight). Cookies at 100 bucks each, onion rings at 120 bucks, almost as if the developers feel that along with international quality we need international prices too!!!
4) With the time/transportation cost et all the other angle to this is the user development fees that is supposed to be charged to the consumer. The idea being that since the consumer is benefiting he must pay for it. As usual, take the last penny from the people who are willing to pay syndrome. In the short run, theoretically the costs should put of some LCC passengers, but that pie is pretty large so there should not be a significant impact
5) What is more important to see is the issue of the ground handling being done (or contracted out) by the developer. Lot of thought goes into the bidding process and each revenue stream would be a reason (and possibly up-front payments from contractors could be one of them) for the IRR’s to accrue to the developers. A lot of players would be watching this with interest, the govt. possibly needs to build in some flexibility in its contracts.
Overall, a step forward. But unless the surrounding issues are quickly solved, we could once again have a case of “well begun is half done”. One thing going for this project is that its extremely difficult to migrate back to the old airport and hence the stakeholders have to hammer out each of the issues. There are no short cuts.
PS: Finally, Whats going to happen to the prime Begumpet Airport Land? And please pardon me for the poor quality of images :)
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